A 100 thousand ha increase in Argentine area and higher yields resulted in a 1.1 mmt increase in wheat production in 1994/95. Slow area expansion and moderate yield growth are projected for the next ten years, increasing exportable surpluses by nearly 2.5 mmt by 2003/04.
Severe drought in Australian grain producing regions cut the wheat crop by nearly 50 percent compared to 1993/94, and reduced exports nearly 8 mmt. Wheat production and exports increase by the end of the 1990s as wheat prices increase relative to feed grain prices.
Wheat area declined nearly by 1.5 million ha in Canada in 1994/95 as canola plantings increased markedly. However, a drawdown in stocks enabled exports to increase 1.4 mmt above 1993/94 levels. Exports are projected to decline in 1995/96, then grow over the remainder of the projection period, reaching nearly 22 mmt by 2003/04.
Wheat exports by the European Union are expected to fall to 15.2 mmt in 1994/95 as set-asides and lower stock levels begin to constrain exportable surpluses. By 1998/99, GATT commitments will further constrain wheat exports.
Wheat yields partially recovered from drought in 1994/95 in Eastern Europe and production increased 3 mmt above 1993/94. Further recovery is expected for wheat production, and this region is projected to become a net exporter of approximately 1 mmt per year in the future.
Russian wheat area and yields decreased in 1994/95 and production fell 8.5 mmt from 1993/94. Further economic contraction is projected, resulting in a continuing decline in wheat feed use. Imports are expected to fall over the projection period.
Drought hit Ukraine, resulting in an 8 mmt reduction in the size of the wheat crop in 1994/95. However, with normal yields beginning in 1995/96, wheat production is expected to recover, creating exportable surpluses of 2.5 mmt by 2003/04.
Chinese wheat production fell approximately 3 mmt in 1994/95 and demand growth resulted in a consumption increase of nearly 4 mmt from 1993/94. Net imports are expected to increase more than 6 mmt this year and continue to grow throughout the projection period.
Brazilian imports of wheat are expected to be the same in 1994/95 as they were in 1993/94. Slowly expanding production is not projected to keep pace with growing demand and imports increase 1.2 mmt from 1994/95 to 2003/04.
A 4.6 mmt decrease in wheat production in Other African and Middle Eastern countries is expected to be offset by stock reductions and domestic use remains at nearly the same level as 1993/94, despite 1.2 mmt lower imports. Although domestic use is projected to increase over the projection period, exports are likely to increase slowly. Most of this region's increase in exports is expected to be to oil exporting countries.
Other Latin American countries are likely to continue relying heavily on imports to meet domestic wheat requirements. However, as continuing debt problems constrain their abilities to buy on the world market, imports are projected to increase only 1.6 mmt over the next ten years.
The newly industrializing Asian countries are expected to continue their robust economic growth, but limited production capacities make it necessary for them to increase wheat imports to meet growing demand. Imports are projected to increase from 5.6 mmt in 1994/95 to 8.4 mmt in 2003/04.
Most of the increase in wheat demand in Other Asian countries will be met through domestic production over the next ten years, but imports will remain an important and growing source of wheat supply in this region. Imports are projected to increase nearly 2.5 mmt by 2003/04.