Over the projection period, the United States is expected to maintain dominance in world soybean trade and will also remain the world's largest total exporter of soybeans and soybean products. Brazil is projected to remain the leading exporter of soybean meal, although Argentina will begin to narrow the gap with Brazil toward the end of the projection period. Argentina will remain the world's largest exporter of soybean oil over the projection period, with the United States overtaking Brazil as the second largest net exporter of soybean oil in 2002/03.
A 20 percent increase in soybean production in Argentina spurs a 1.7 mmt increase in crush over the projection period, allowing soybean meal and soybean oil net exports to increase by 1.2 mmt and 250 tmt respectively. Increased crush limits soybean net exports to 3 mmt in 1994/95, increasing to 3.8 mmt in 2003/04.
Brazilian soybean net exports of 4.5 mmt in 1994/95 are projected to grow to 5 mmt by 2003/04. Soybean meal and oil net exports show slow growth over the projection period, due to increasing domestic demand for meal for Brazil's growing poultry sector, and income-driven domestic demand for soybean oil.
Record soybean production of 69.6 mmt in the United States turns into 21.5 mmt of soybean exports in 1994/95. U.S. soybean meal exports are projected to grow by 25 percent between 1995/96 and 2003/04, while soybean oil exports are projected to grow by 73 percent over the same period.
Canadian soybean production increased by 22 percent in 1994/95, mostly due to an increase in area harvested. The increased production resulted in nearly 900 tmt of soybean net exports in 1994/95. As significant area is expected to be switched back to other competing crops, net exports are projected to drop down to just over 500 tmt and are expected remain stable over the projection period. Soybean meal net imports are projected to grow from 570 tmt in 1994/95 to 654 tmt in 2003/04.
Despite an upsurge in soybean production in China, income-driven demand for meal and oil leaves only 500 tmt of soybean net exports in 1994/95. Although area expansion is projected to subside, crush is expected to continue robust expansion, causing net exports of soybeans to fall off steadily over the projection period. The recent dramatic increase in domestic use of soybean meal is expected to continue, eroding China's net exports of soybean meal to less than 100 tmt in 2003/04. Soybean oil net imports are expected to drop off slightly in 1994/95, as palm oil prices return to normal, and are expected to remain just under 900 tmt over the projection period.
Responding to favorable prices that have resulted from increased world soybean production, European Union net imports of soybeans reach 14.5 mmt in 1994/95, a 13.5 percent increase from the previous year. Soybean net imports are projected to remain stable over the projection period to maintain supply for the European Union's crushing industry. Soybean meal net imports and soybean oil net exports are projected to remain relatively flat.
Continued expansion of the poultry industry in Japan will be the driving force behind slowly increasing soybean net imports over the projection period. Despite the increased crush, the loss of cheap soybean meal imports from China will force Japan to maintain net imports of at least 800 tmt over the projection period. Increased crush of canola for oil will generally eliminate the need to import soybean oil throughout the projection period.
Compliance with GATT access commitments and environmental concerns associated with livestock production are expected are expected to slow the rate of soybean imports in South Korea and Taiwan over the projection period. Net imports of soybeans are projected to increase from 1.3 to 1.6 mmt for South Korea, and from 2.4 to 2.6 mmt for Taiwan. Soybean net imports are not expected to rebound significantly in the republics of the former Soviet Union, following the recent downward trends of the livestock industries and continued poor economic outlook.