A return to normal weather conditions in Thailand allows production to rebound to 13.8 mmt in 1994/95, a 1.2 mmt increase above the poor crop of the previous year. Net exports are projected to increase steadily from 4.5 mmt in 1994/95 to 6.2 mmt in 2003/04, in response to increased world demand and robust prices. Thailand is expected to maintain its position as the world's leading rice exporter, due to yield growth potential and stable per capita domestic consumption.
Although Vietnam is projected to experience moderate area growth for rice production and diversify into other crops, continual yield growth, along with low growth in domestic consumption, translates into a solid export position. Vietnam is projected to emerge as the world's second largest rice exporter with net exports of just over 2 mmt in 2002/2003, a position it is expected to maintain well into the next decade.
Rice production reaches record levels in the United States in 1994/95, as the ARP rate is set to 0 percent, resulting in a 27 percent increase in production above the previous year's crop. Net exports of 2.5 mmt in 1994/95 will drop off to just 2 mmt, in part due to a lack of new area available to rice with ARP rates already at zero. Additionally, the United States has agreed to GATT commitments which reduce the quantity of rice exports that may be subsidized from no more than 272 tmt in 1995 down to 39 tmt in 2000.
Successive years of good crops have allowed Pakistan to rebuild stocks and maintain last year's net export level of nearly 1.3 mmt in 1994/95. Slowly increasing area harvested and steady yield growth, combined with flat per capita domestic consumption, are projected to allow Pakistan to maintain exports just above 1 mmt throughout the projection period.
Record rice crops in Myanmar in 1993/94 and 1994/95 can be largely attributed to a government initiative to expand the dry season crop. Net exports climb to 800 tmt of mostly low-quality rice, largely as a result of China's inability to export low-quality rice. Lack of investment in Myanmar's outdated milling industry will hinder its ability to increase net exports over the projection period.
A second year of good production in India, combined with high stock levels, allows net exports to climb to 800 tmt in 1994/95. However, despite steady yield growth, growth in domestic consumption is projected to keep pace with production in India, limiting exports to 600 to 700 tmt over the rest of the projection period.
Chinese rice area drops to 30 million ha in 1994/95, down 3 million ha from the 1990/91 level, as farmers continue to switch to competing crops due to relative prices. The loss of area and subsequent reduced production have caused stocks to be drawn to dangerously low levels in order to maintain domestic consumption. China is projected to be a net importer of over 200 tmt in 1994/95, after net exports of over 1 mmt in the two previous years. Without a major policy change, net exports are not expected to rebound to previous levels at any time over the projection period.
Japan responds to the poor crop of 1993/94 with a 53 percent increase in production in 1994/95. This year's bumper crop will allow Japan to replenish its stocks and delay importing its GATT commitment for 1995 until late in 1995/1996. Japan is not expected to import rice over the projection period, beyond what was agreed to in the GATT.
Indonesia is expected to have net imports of over 600 tmt of rice in 1994/95 due to severe drought in several regions. Although Indonesia has an official policy of self-sufficiency in rice, it has been a major rice importer in 12 of the last 15 years, and is projected to maintain a net import position over the projection period.