Canadian canola area has expanded by over 40 percent for the second consecutive year, from 2.9 mn ha in 1992/93 up to 5.7 mn ha in 1994/95. Canola area is projected to fall back and be maintained at a more sustainable level of approximately 5 mn ha. Net exports of 3.9 mmt are projected to grow to 4.2 mmt in 2003/04, while crush capacity is projected to grow from 2.4 to 2.8 mmt over the same period. Domestic consumption of meal and oil are not expected to increase significantly over the projection period, allowing meal and oil exports to increase by 155 tmt and 110 tmt respectively.
Despite a 7 percent increase in rapeseed area harvested in 1994/95, China is expected to end 1994/95 as a minor net importer of rapeseed. Even though crush is expected to expand in an attempt to satisfy domestic demand for vegetable oil, rapeseed oil net imports of approximately 270 tmt are expected over the projection period, except in 1995/96 when the prices of competing vegetable oils will be more attractive. Domestic consumption of rapemeal is expected to expand with crush, and net exports of rapeseed meal are projected to trail off as domestic consumption catches up to production.
Although oilseed area in the European Union is constrained by commitments in the Blair House oilseeds agreement, rapeseed area has expanded due to favorable prices relative to other grains, and a clause that allows oilseeds to be planted on set-aside area if grown for industrial purposes. Net imports of rapemeal are expected to fluctuate with changes in the prices of competing feeds, while net exports of rapeseed oil will increase slightly over the projection period as domestic consumption levels off.
Japanese imports of 2 mmt of canola are projected to grow to only 2.1 mmt by 2003/04. The increase in canola crush in recent years has led to canola meal replacing some soybean meal in feed rations. With canola oil being preferred to soybean oil, imports of canola will generally follow trends in domestic demand for canola oil.
In an attempt to increase self-sufficiency in vegetable oils, rapeseed area harvested is projected to expand in India from 6.2 mn ha in 1994/95 to 6.5 mn ha in 2003/04. Rapeseed meal exports are projected to more than double over the projection period, as the oil driven increase in crush also results in significant growth in meal production.