The 1995 world production of primary meats, namely, pork, beef and poultry, is estimated at 68, 45, and 43 million metric tons (mmt), respectively.
World beef trade is projected to decline at a rate of over 1.6 percent per year until the year 2000, primarily due to GATT-related restrictions on exports of the European Union and lower import demand in the United States during the rising phase of the beef cycle. An expansion in beef trade is projected after the year 2000 as the U.S. beef cycle turns, while import demand from Japan and other high-income Asian countries continues to grow. Expansion in production and exports is projected for the Oceanic countries (Australia and New Zealand), Argentina, and Brazil.
World pork trade is expected to grow over the projection period. The increase in import demand of Japan and other high-income Asian countries is projected to continue as environmental concerns limit domestic production. The United States becomes a net exporter by 1998, and rapidly increases its market share thereafter. China is the other expanding exporter of pork.
Health concerns and low feed prices contribute to the expansion of the poultry industry worldwide. However, the consumption growth rate exceeds growth in production in the cases of Japan, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Hong Kong, resulting in increased imports which strengthen the world poultry trade. U.S. production and exports have been consistently increasing in the historical period and are projected to maintain a steady growth rate during the projection period.
Contrary to the European Commission's forecasts of an 8 percent increase in the European Union's beef production, the 1994 level of production was, in fact, marginally below the 1993 level. Stocks dwindled from over a million to less than 200 thousand metric tons (tmt). Pork basic price was reduced in mid-1994 from ECU 1,900 to 1,300. The share of unsubsidized exports in the total pork exports is projected to be about 30 percent in the long run. Faster growth in poultry consumption, relative to production, is expected to reduce net exports by nearly 50 percent over the projection period.
Although Japan witnessed 8 percent growth in its beef production during 1990-95, lower tariffs on beef imports and reduced domestic support for the dairy industry are expected to constrain production to current levels in the projection period. Low domestic prices and more competitive world exports will increase Japanese imports. Pork imports are also projected to increase as production is restrained by environmental concerns, while consumption demand continues to grow.
Livestock production in the countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) declined by about 30 percent in the 1990-95 period due to deterioration in general economic performance that contributed to rapid inventory liquidation and feed shortages. Further declines of about 5 percent in beef and pork are projected in the near term before these sectors start to recover. FSU meat consumption, which had previously been subsidized, has also declined substantially, thereby depressing the meat import demand. However, relative prices and quality preferences of high-income groups will contribute to moderate growth in imports of pork and poultry.
The increasing phase of the beef cycle in the United States contributes to an early decline in the world prices, but subsequently the trend is reversed and the prices increase at an annual average rate of about 4 percent between 1997 to 2004. Pork and poultry prices remain relatively stable.