A 100 thousand ha increase in Argentine corn area, combined with a slight increase in yield, is expected to result in a 250 tmt increase in exports in 1994/95. Little area growth is expected for the remainder of the projection period, but moderate yield growth translates into a 1.6 mmt increase in exports by 2003/04.
Severe drought in Australian barley producing regions has reduced the crop more than 4.4 mmt compared to 1993/94. After recovery from the drought, production is expected to increase with only slow yield growth, limiting export potential over the next ten years.
Canadian barley area declined in 1994/95 as canola plantings increased dramatically. Barley area is projected to remain stable for the next ten years at 4.1 million ha, and production increases only with yields. Export growth is expected to be very slow.
The macroeconomic engine driving Chinese feed grain demand shifted gears in 1994/95, leading to an expected 7 mmt increase in domestic use of feed grains. Although production in 1994/95 was 1 mmt higher than in 1993/94, China is expected to be barely self-sufficient in feed grains, compared to exports of more than 10 mmt last year.
The drought in Eastern Europe lasted into the 1994 growing season and feed grain production was only 2.5 mmt above 1993/94 levels. Recovery is expected to occur in 1995/96, and production is projected to increase more than 8 mmt compared to 1994/95. Eastern Europe is projected to be a net importer of roughly 2 mmt by 2003/04.
Cereal area set-aside requirements in the European Union have resulted in a disproportionate reduction in barley area compared to other grains. Exports of barley are projected to decline to less than 4 mmt as stocks are reduced through 1998/99, then begin to increase as GATT constraints on wheat exports cause a shift of land back into barley.
Because of expanding poultry production in Thailand, corn feed demand is expected to increase faster than corn production. Exports are projected to decline, and Thailand becomes a net importer by the end of the century.
The productive potential of Ukraine and reduced domestic feed demand resulting from poor economic performance are projected to result in this country becoming a net exporter of nearly 3 mmt of feed grains by 2003/04.
Feed demand is projected to be weak due to increasing beef imports and gradual declines in hog inventories in Japan. Even with growth in poultry production, feed grain demand and imports are not projected to increase.
Although NAFTA and PROCAMPO have opened the Mexican market for feed grains and provided incentive for increased feeding of corn, the huge devaluation of the peso partially dampened import increases. As the Mexican economy stabilizes in the next few years, import growth is projected to accelerate.
Drought in some of the grain-producing regions of Russia resulted in smaller crops of feed grains, particularly corn and rye, in 1994/95. However, continuing declines in animal inventories are offsetting the small crop, and net imports are expected to fall to less than 2 mmt. No recovery in imports is projected for the next ten years.
Asia (excluding China, Thailand, and Japan) is projected to increase feed grain imports by nearly 5 mmt between 1994/95 and 2003/04 because of land constraints and high income growth leading to increased livestock production. Countries such as South Korea and Taiwan are expected to account for a large proportion of this increase in imports, however environmental constraints relating to pork production could become an issue, particularly in Taiwan.
Debt problems are have limited feed-grain import expansion in Latin America (excluding Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) in the past. However, accelerated income growth is expected to result from GATT in many of these countries, and imports are projected to increase approximately 1.5 mmt compared to 1994/95 by the end of the projection period.