12/6/99

Contacts:
Dan Otto, Economics, 515/294-6147
Peter Orazem, Economics, 515/294-7740
Susan Thompson, Agriculture Information, 515/294-0705

ISU ECONOMISTS SHOW CONTINUED EARNINGS AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

AMES, Iowa -- Both jobs and earnings have increased in Iowa over the past two years, according to economists at Iowa State University. And while the most rapid employment growth has been in metropolitan counties, the most rapid earnings growth has been in rural counties.

The analysis of county-level employment and earnings data was done by economics professors Peter Orazem and Daniel Otto and graduate student Andrew Lin. "The unique aspect of this study is that it gets county-level estimates out two years before that information becomes available from the U.S. Commerce Department," says Orazem. "We hope this study will be useful for city and county planning while providing an earlier indication of strengths and weaknesses in the Iowa economy."

The study projects the number of jobs in the Iowa non-farm economy will have grown 2.1 percent by the end of 1999 compared to a 2.5 percent growth in 1998. Pay-per-worker will increase 3.7 percent in 1999, down from a 4.8 percent earnings growth in 1998.

The most rapid employment growth over the 1997-99 period is in Iowa's metropolitan counties with an average increase of 2.7 percent per year. This compares to a national non-farm employment growth rate of 2.2 percent. Three metropolitan counties accounted for the most growth, Johnson (Iowa City), Linn (Cedar Rapids) and Polk (Des Moines).

While urban counties had more rapid employment growth than rural counties overall, the three most rapidly growing counties in the state are rural counties -- Clarke, Lucas and Marion. And only two urban counties (Johnson and Muscatine) are among the top 10.

"This speaks to broad-based strength in the non-farm economy in Iowa," Otto says. "Nevertheless, 17 counties are projected to have negative employment growth over the two-year period, and all of the bottom 10 counties in employment growth are rural. The strong overall employment growth picture disguises some significant employment problems in certain rural counties."

The research shows average pay-per-worker in the non-farm sector grew in 98 of 99 counties over the two-year period. Jefferson County was the lone exception.

Earnings growth has been more rapid in rural counties than urban counties. The most rapid earnings growth rate, averaging 4.7 percent per year, is projected in rural counties that are not adjacent to a metropolitan market. Rural counties account for nine of the top 10 counties in projected pay growth.

Otto says the report shows earnings growth in Iowa appears to be above the national average, with some counties experiencing growth in earnings well above national trends. "Earnings are projected to grow at or above 4 percent per year overall," he says. "Mahaska, Hardin and Tama counties are projected to have earnings growth averaging 10 percent or more per year over the 1997-99 period."

Only Mills and Taylor counties are on the top 10 lists of both earnings and employment growth. Wayne and Jefferson are the only two counties in the bottom 10 on both lists. Orazem says all four are in the bottom tier of counties in Iowa, which indicates labor market strength is only weakly related to geography. "Counties bordering other states are more likely to lag in projected employment growth relative to the state average, but projected earnings growth has no apparent geographic pattern," he says.

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Editor's Note: Following are tables that provide statewide and county-specific employment and earnings percentages for the 1997-1999 time period. Six Iowa maps in JPEG format are available. Three of the maps deal with employment growth rates and three with earnings growth rates. To request the maps, contact Susan Thompson at sander@iastate.edu or 515/294-0705. Or visit this web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/community/laborpatterns/

1997-1999 Projected Employment and Earnings Growth Rates, by Area

	Employment growth rate			Earnings growth rate
Counties	1997-98	1998-99	1997-99	1997-98	1998-99	1997-99
Metropolitan	2.9%	2.5%	5.4%	4.9%	3.5%	8.6%
Urban non-metro	2.5%	1.8%	4.4%	4.6%	3.3%	8.1%
Rural adjacent to metro	1.7%	2.1%	3.8%	4.6%	4.0%	8.8%
Rural non-adjacent	2.1%	1.3%	3.4%	4.9%	4.5%	9.6%
State average	2.5%	2.1%	4.7%	4.8%	3.7%	8.7%

Projected Employment Growth--1997-1999

Top 10 Counties
Clarke	16.3%
Lucas	12.8%
Marion	12.5%
Johnson	11.6%
Carroll	9.7%
Taylor	9.4%
Mills	9.3%
Fremont	9.3%
Madison	9.3%
Muscatine	9.1%

Bottom 10 Counties
Floyd	-1.0%
Lyon	-1.2%
Cedar	-2.2%
Audubon	-2.3%
Page	-3.8%
Jefferson	-4.6%
Monona	-4.9%
Wayne	-5.1%
Davis	-5.4%
Louisa	-8.1%

Projected Earnings Growth--1997-1999

Top 10 Counties
Mahaska	25.2%
Hardin	24.1%
Tama	21.0%
Sac	16.9%
Jasper	16.9%
Linn	16.8%
Mills	16.6%
Taylor	16.4%
Monona	13.6%
Osceola	13.5%

Bottom 10 Counties
Grundy	3.1%
Shelby	2.9%
Calhoun	2.8%
Wapello	2.6%
Jones	2.0%
Fremont	1.7%
Black Hawk	1.3%
Worth	1.0%
Wayne	0.3%
Jefferson	-0.4%

Projection of 1997-99 non-farm private sector employment and earnings growth rates by county

County	Employment growth rate	Earnings/job growth rate
Adair	8.8%	9.7%
Adams	6.4%	9.8%
Allamakee	-0.1%	8.4%
Appanoose	4.4%	9.4%
Audubon	-2.3%	11.1%
Benton	1.0%	9.7%
Black Hawk	4.2%	1.3%
Boone	4.0%	10.8%
Bremer	-0.5%	7.8%
Buchanan	6.7%	8.7%
Buena Vista	4.8%	10.0%
Butler	1.0%	11.2%
Calhoun	1.3%	2.8%
Carroll	9.7%	12.2%
Cass	4.9%	9.5%
Cedar	-2.2%	7.4%
Cerro Gordo	1.8%	10.7%
Cherokee	2.7%	5.3%
Chickasaw	5.4%	10.9%
Clarke	16.3%	11.3%
Clay	0.9%	3.4%
Clayton	0.4%	5.8%
Clinton	1.1%	6.7%
Crawford	8.3%	5.2%
Dallas	5.6%	10.6%
Davis	-5.4%	10.4%
Decatur	2.2%	4.3%
Delaware	5.7%	3.6%
Des Moines	2.2%	8.1%
Dickinson	-0.5%	11.7%
Dubuque	2.8%	3.8%
Emmet	1.8%	9.6%
Fayette	0.2%	7.2%
Floyd	-1.0%	7.9%
Franklin	4.3%	13.0%
Fremont	9.3%	1.7%
Greene	6.6%	7.0%
Grundy	6.6%	3.1%
Guthrie	3.1%	9.2%
Hamilton	3.3%	6.1%
Hancock	5.3%	11.9%
Hardin	6.5%	24.1%
Harrison	5.5%	11.1%
Henry	1.9%	9.2%
Howard	4.9%	7.7%
Humboldt	6.0%	7.8%
Ida	1.4%	7.9%
Iowa	5.8%	4.1%
Jackson	3.3%	6.2%
Jasper	2.7%	16.9%
Jefferson	-4.6%	-0.4%
Johnson	11.6%	6.5%
Jones	3.6%	2.0%
Keokuk	0.6%	6.0%
Kossuth	-0.1%	10.2%
Lee	3.4%	11.7%
Linn	8.0%	16.8%
Louisa	-8.1%	12.3%
Lucas	12.8%	8.1%
Lyon	-1.2%	13.1%
Madison	9.3%	13.0%
Mahaska	6.1%	25.2%
Marion	12.5%	6.8%
Marshall	8.5%	9.3%
Mills	9.3%	16.6%
Mitchell	-0.3%	4.0%
Monona	-4.9%	13.6%
Monroe	7.0%	9.2%
Montgomery	0.9%	5.3%
Muscatine	9.1%	8.6%
O'Brien	2.7%	5.9%
Osceola	2.4%	13.5%
Page	-3.8%	10.3%
Palo Alto	2.5%	7.1%
Plymouth	4.8%	10.4%
Pocahontas	2.2%	11.9%
Polk	5.9%	8.3%
Pottawattamie	-0.1%	12.3%
Poweshiek	6.0%	7.8%
Ringgold	-0.8%	6.4%
Sac	3.7%	16.9%
Scott	4.7%	6.3%
Shelby	1.0%	2.9%
Sioux	4.0%	9.7%
Story	6.2%	6.4%
Tama	2.5%	21.0%
Taylor	9.4%	16.4%
Union	7.2%	8.7%
Van Buren	5.8%	12.0%
Wapello	2.0%	2.6%
Warren	3.4%	9.0%
Washington	3.7%	5.8%
Wayne	-5.1%	0.3%
Webster	4.9%	7.1%
Winnebago	5.3%	11.9%
Winneshiek	3.7%	9.2%
Woodbury	0.3%	9.4%
Worth	1.1%	1.0%
Wright	0.5%	9.9%

State of Iowa 4.7% 8.7%

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